In this Vienna Coffee House Conversation, Ivan Vejvoda speaks with journalist and former Europe's Futures Fellow Tim Judah about his new book Life and Fate, which examines demographic changes across Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe. They discuss shrinking and aging populations, declining fertility, migration patterns, labor shortages, and the fiscal challenges these trends pose. Judah assesses policy efforts such as family incentives and immigration, and emphasizes the necessity of focusing on healthy life expectancy and technological adaptation. They explore how demographic fears feed populist and nationalist discourses, with varied political responses across Europe - from the quetionable efficacy of Hungary’s pronatalist policies to Western Europe’s migration debates and regional depopulation in Spain. Judah highlights the interconnectedness between demographic trends and geopolitical shifts, including EU enlargement and post-Brexit dynamics. The conversation culminates in Judah’s reflections on Ukraine, based on his frontline reporting. He outlines the technological evolution of modern warfare - drones, automation, fiber-optic systems - and Ukrainian resilience and pragmatism. They conclude by considering what these trends mean for Europe’s future, including the role of the U.K., EU accession, and the evolving concept of Europe itself.
Demographic megatrends: Population is shrinking and aging across Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe; fertility rates remain low and often below replacement levels. Some Western nations rely on immigration to maintain workforce levels.
Economic and fiscal impact: Falling birth rates and working-age populations threaten tax bases needed to sustain pensions, healthcare, and living standards.
Policy responses: Hungary’s family incentives briefly boosted fertility before rates fell again to ~1.38. Scandinavian social policies helped but haven’t reached replacement fertility. Immigration remains essential.
Healthy life expectancy: Lifespans have increased significantly but healthy years have not kept pace. Promoting healthy ageing is critical for extending working lives.
Political narratives: Demographic anxieties underpin nationalist rhetoric in Hungary and Bulgaria. In Western Europe, aging populations amplify both immigrant integration debates and depopulation concerns (e.g., rural Spain).
Ukraine and modern warfare: Judah shares frontline insights: drones, electronic warfare countermeasures, fiber-optic-controlled UAVs, land drones for logistics and medevac, and upcoming AI-swarm tech reshape battlefield dynamics.
Ukrainian resilience: On-the-ground mindset is “phlegmatic pragmatism”—facing war fatigue, debate over ceasefire, but determination to adapt.
Europe’s future: Post-Brexit Britain re-engages with EU; EU enlargement may take a variable-geometry approach. Western Balkans and Ukraine may enter through piecemeal integration rather than simultaneous accession.
Tim Judah
A British journalist and author Tim Judah is a Special Correspondent for The Economist and a longtime commentator on Eastern Europe. Educated at the LSE, and Fletcher School at Tufts University, he has reported from global hotspots across the Balkans, Ukraine, Africa, and Asia. His major works include The Serbs: History, Myth and the Destruction of Yugoslavia, Kosovo: War & Revenge, and In Wartime: Stories from Ukraine. He has been shortlisted for the 2022 Bayeux Calvados-Normandy War Correspondents Prize. Judah co-founded the concept of the “Yugosphere” during a fellowship at LSE in 2009, serves on the boards of BIRN and the Kosovar Stability Initiative, and was a fellow of IWM and ERSTE Foundation's Europe’s Futures programme in 2018/19
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